The Bitcoin Spot ETF may not be as bullish as you think

Posted in

Are you aboard the Bitcoin ETF hype train? Hold up—let’s take a real look at it. Yes, I’m excited too, but let’s not get lost in the bullish frenzy.

Here’s the scoop: A Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. might not be the price rocket everyone’s expecting. Sure, let’s say $100 billion could flow in within the first days, but in the grand Bitcoin market, that’s just a 12% bump. Not the big surge you’d think.

But there’s a twist. Most Bitcoin isn’t actively traded, so this $100 billion could actually lead to a 40% increase, pushing Bitcoin to around $60,000—still not quite the all-time high.

Am I bearish on Bitcoin? No way! I see it soaring in the next 18 months, but the ETF alone won’t get us there. Here’s what else to watch out for:

  • The upcoming Bitcoin halving in early Q2. This event cuts the daily Bitcoin creation from 900 to 450. Basic economics tells us that reduced supply, coupled with increased demand (thanks to the ETF), should lead to a price surge.
  • Central banks, including the Fed, are expected to loosen monetary policies again. We’ve seen hints of interest rate cuts, but more action is likely needed. Looser monetary policy tends to boost speculative investments, potentially propelling Bitcoin’s value.

I see the ETF as a vehicle that investors can use, but just because you have a vehicle doesn’t mean you’re moving. What you need is fuel – cheap fuel (cheap money)! And a change in monetary policy will provide just that.

Investing is tricky, and Bitcoin’s future is hard to predict. But it’s clear that Bitcoin’s journey is far from over, and that’s exciting. Stay sharp everyone, avoid FUD & FOMO and let’s navigate this crypto world together!

Continue reading